“Don't talk to me about aesthetics or tradition. Talk to me about what sells and what's good right now. And what the American people like is to think the underdog still has a chance.”
― George Steinbrenner
FROM THE FRONT
By Len Semas Main Feature 6/19/2016)
Why Trump Will Win …
And Why He May Not
Trump has turned an election into a revolution. He has taken every rule in the book and broken it, replacing it with his political version of “The Art of the Deal.” This is why every single “expert” has been wrong with every single forecast or prediction. And they’re not done yet.
In this revolution, Trump is the guy on the white horse. He is the Washington to the British; the Knight Templar to the world of Islam; and the Winfield Scott to the nation of Mexico. In a time when politicians and pundits wring their hands over concerns of political correctness, Trump charges like a bull in a proverbial China Shop. Trump doesn’t practice his words – he blurts them out with an honesty and bluntness that the nation has not seen since Ronald Reagan or Harry Truman.
And guess what? Democrats, Republicans and Independents are ready for this. They would have demanded it sooner, but they didn’t have a politically incorrect choice until now! The mainstream media, of course, STILL don’t get it. They pounce on every politically incorrect statement; they laugh snidely at every muffed phrase; they belittle his obvious lack of political expertise. And the American middle-class is lapping it up. The Ivy League educated and other elite pundits laugh quietly into their hands, while Trump soundly kicks their collective asses. The “experts” have never been more wrong about a candidate or the state of our country. I am embarrassed for them. They STILL don’t get it.
What of the elite political class? The Democrats hate Trump. He is everything they can’t stand. At least they purport to. They hate his wealth, though most of them have substantial, if not extreme, wealth themselves – and often ill-gotten through political dealings and special treatment. Harry Reid and Diane Feinstein come to mind. The Republicans hate Trump too. He is disrupting the cozy relationship with Democrats that keep the “old guard” of both parties comfortable ensconced in office forever. He is, just as the classic movie Network’s Howard Beale, “messing with the powers that be.” Both parties are circling the wagons of self-interest. The problem is, the people are joining the adversary. Republicans AND Democrats are fed up with the entrenched interests and supporting the man, not the party.
In the year since Trump entered the campaign for president, he has taken on and bested one favorite after another until none of the original 17 were left standing. Trump beat the Bush dynasty, the young Turks (Walker, Rubio), the old guard (Huckabee, Graham, Perry, Kasich), the up and comers (Carson, Jindal), the lone female, Carly Fiorina, the outsider, Ted Cruz, and all the rest. Hillary, by contrast, struggled to finish first among a small field of old nags and also-rans (with the help of insider pledged delegates). Trump has shown that he is not to be dealt with lightly. Nor is he going to be constrained by phony political civility, traditional rules or the fact that his opponent is a woman (albeit, a ruthless, no-holds barred, crooked as they come woman).
Trump is the biggest unknown in politics since Teddy Roosevelt. The Media is at a loss to understand him and every time they try they fall flat on their face. He is unpredictable, non-professional and prone to a knee-jerk response to challenges. Trump is Trump. Deal with it. He has gotten more free PR and media coverage than any candidate in history as a result of his outlandish statements and unique style – and it has worked. He’s like a wrestler swathed in olive oil with opponents who simply cannot get a decent hold on him. Even his frequent gaffs and misstatements prove nothing more than minor missteps.
Minorities have been owned by the Democrats for 60+ years, having been bought off with every free commodity and hollow promise they could muster. Blacks, Hispanics and others have awakened and are beginning to ask, “what in the hell HAVE you done for us except tether us to false promises and empty dreams?” They look at Trump and say, “I’m not sure who he is, but this guy creates real jobs!” A great many among minority communities are hardworking, strong family and traditional value kind of folks and they are awakening to the string of Democrat lies and excesses that have undermined those values. As for respect for women, do you think that Bill Clinton is the poster child to be tied to? Really? I predict that Trump will do much better among women than the “experts” predict, and will receive 30-35% of both Black and Latino votes for one reason – jobs and perceived domestic prosperity.
For eight years the country has lived under lackluster economic performance, propped up by false stock market success as a result of perpetual debt financing with near zero cost of money. The economy has been a house of cards. Unemployment numbers belie the fact that people are underemployed, holding multiple jobs or have simply dropped out of the labor force. The economy is, quite frankly, a façade of Obama lies and sleight of hand trickery. People have more confidence in a businessman than a lying professional politician to deal with the inevitable economic mess looming on the horizon.
The media is suggesting that our allies around the world are nervous about Trump. I’m not so sure about that, but I guarantee ISIS is – or should be. Trump will identify the enemy as Islamic Extremists without apology, and he will turn the professionals loose (those that are left or can be reinstated after Obama’s purge) to deal with the issues as they see fit. They will not be micro-managed or restrained. After Hillary’s stint as Secretary of State (for which she was grossly unqualified) she has zero credibility in dealing with the problems of the Middle East, much less the rest of the world. Can you say “Iran Deal.”
Trump will win despite the lack of support among his Party’s establishment and even those working actively against him. He will win because he will form a coalition that Republicans have not seen for half a century: Blacks, Hispanics, Blue/Black collar middle income workers, union workers, Gays and other traditional Democrats that are fed up with the lies of their Party, and find Trump a refreshing non-politician. The gain of those non-traditional voters will far outweigh the loss of the jaded, inept and self-serving career Republican establishment.
Trump is his own worst enemy. His supporters will cut him a lot of slack but there are limits to everything. He can afford to get dumped by one of the professional insiders of the Party, but he can’t afford to alienate large swaths of his rank and file supporters. He needs to do a better job of articulating his programs, and get off the name calling and demonizing. He needs to focus his attacks on Hillary, and make them factual, not emotional. God knows she has given him enough ammunition to do so. The dealings of the Clinton Foundation, once fully exploited and made known, are enough to sink her campaign.
Trump needs to have knowledgeable professionals – not Party hacks - write his scripts and he needs to understand them and adopt them. He has the mental capacity to do so; he needs to constrain the emotional tendency not to. The facts are on his side.
The media, despite the massive quantity of free publicity, is not Trump’s friend. It is not any Republican’s friend, but especially Trump. They are 90% Liberals and they are in the tank for Hillary, pure and simple. Trump cannot just refuse to talk to them; he has to best them. He should be watching every video of Ronald Reagan back to when he was Governor, and mimic that winning approach. Trump is no Ronald Reagan – but he would be well advised to come as close as he can. “There they go again,” worked.
While he is not going to get the most diehard establishment types (McConnell, Ryan) on his side, he can at least shorten the distance between them. He needs to build bridges (a development tycoon should know that); he needs to soften his public persona; he needs to rely more on humor than invective; and he needs surround himself with experts, listen and learn. In short, he needs to restrain his ego – that may be his toughest opponent yet.
FINAL WARNING TO GOP
If you are stupid enough to attempt to circumvent the clear victory of Donald Trump in the primary process by playing games at the convention, you will fracture – and likely destroy – the Republican Party. In so doing, you will assure the election of the least qualified and most dangerous candidate in history. Her executive actions, and likely nomination of 3-4 members of the Supreme Court, will alter the country dramatically, and perhaps in ways from which it will never recover. We are talking about the end of America.
Think what you like about Donald Trump, but one thing is certain: his election will not result in the demise of our country; hers very well could.